2025 Madrid Open Women’s Draw: Preview and Prediction featuring Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, and Coco Gauff

The second WTA 500 of the season on clay- the Stuttgart Open- ended on Monday (April 21). Jelena Ostapenko got crowned as the champion, beating World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets.

Now it’s time for the Madrid Open– the first WTA 1000 of the season on clay. The main draw of the 16th edition of the Madrid Open of the WTA Tour is scheduled to start on April 21. The final will be concluded on May 3.

Tournament Details

• Tournament: 2025 Madrid Open
• Date: April 21- May 3
• No. of Entrants: 96 (Singles)
• Venue: Caja Magica in Manzanares Park, San Fermin, Madrid
• Surface: Outdoor clay court
• Total Prize Money Pool: $8,963,700
• Defending Champion: Iga Swiatek

Top Seeds at the 2025 Madrid Open

• Aryna Sabalenka
• Iga Swiatek
• Jessica Pegula
• Coco Gauff
• Madison Keys
• Jasmine Paolini
• Mirra Andreeva
• Zheng Qinwen
• Paula Badosa
• Elena Rybakina

First quarter

Aryna Sabalenka and 2024 Olympic champion Qinwen Zheng will headline the first quarter. Sabalenka will be chasing her third title in the tournament as well as her third title of the season, following her victory in Brisbane and Miami.

The Belarusian is projected to meet Zheng or friend Paula Badosa in the quarterfinals. Emma Raducanu is also a part of this draw and she will be playing her first tournament since losing the Miami Open quarterfinals to eventual winner Jessica Pegula.

Quarterfinal prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng

Second quarter

Jessica Pegula, Elena Rybakina, Daria Kasatkina, and Jasmine Paolini are part of this draw. Pegula will be chasing her third title of the season following her victories at the ATX Open and the Charleston Open.

Two-time Wimbledon finalist Ons Jabeur will be playing her first match since losing to Paolini in the third round of the Miami Open. Rybakina too will be kick starting her campaign on the clay swing in this tournament. Apart from the aforementioned players, the draw also features Elina Svitolina, two-time Grand Slam champion Victoria Azarenka, Katie Boulter and Maria Sakkari.

Quarterfinal prediction: Jessica Pegula vs. Jasmine Paolini

Third quarter

Coco Gauff is projected to meet this year’s Dubai Open and Indian Wells champion Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals. Gauff is still searching for her first title since winning the 2024 WTA Finals.

The 2023 US Open champion has failed to win more than two matches in the tournaments she played after losing the Australian Open quarterfinals. Apart from Gauff and Andreeva, this quarter has 12th seed Karolina Muchova, Beatriz Haddad Maia and Clara Tauson.

Quarterfinal prediction: Coco Gauff vs. Mirra Andreeva

Fourth quarter

Iga Swiatek and 2025 Australian Open champion Madison Keys will headline this quarter. Swiatek hasn’t yet won a title since winning the 2024 French Open trophy. She started her campaign on the clay swing in Stuttgart Open in her hope to end her trophy drought but Jelena Ostapenko denied her the chance to do the same, beating her in the quarterfinals.

In Madrid also, Swiatek is projected to meet the Latvian (if they reach the fourth round). The fourth quarter also features four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka, 2024 Paris Olympics silver medalist Donna Vekic, Emma Navarro, and Linda Noskova.

Quarterfinal prediction: Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys

Semifinals

Aryna Sabalenka is the favorite to reach another semifinal of the season and she also leads 6-0 over Qinwen Zheng in the head-to-record. Jessica Pegula, having won the Charleston Open, is expected to beat Jasmine Paolini, who recently suffered a straight-set defeat to Sabalenka in the Stuttgart Open semifinal.

As Coco Gauff suffered a dip in her form, Mirra Andreeva is expected to reach another semifinal. Defending champion Iga Swiatek is expected to inch closer to her first title of the season.

Semifinal prediction

• Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula
• Iga Swiatek vs. Mirra Andreeva

Final

If everything happens as per the predictions, this year’s Madrid Open final can see a blockbuster clash between Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, which will also be a rematch of last year’s Madrid Open final. In 2024, the five-time Grand Slam champion saved three championship points to become a champion in the Spanish capital for the first time.

Swiatek has met the three-time Grand Slam singles champion 12 times and leads the head-to-head record 8-4. The Pole is also 5-1 over the first seed in clay-court events.

Final prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek
Winner prediction: Iga Swiatek