3 reasons that Israel Adesanya’s top-level career is DONE if he can’t beat Nassourdine Imavov at UFC Saudi Arabia
Israel Adesanya cannot afford to have a three-fight losing streak after his main event bout at UFC Saudi Arabia in Riyadh.
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Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov will take place next place at UFC Fight Night Saudi Arabia (via Imago)
Israel Adesanya is set to fight Nassourdine Imavov in the main event of UFC Saudi Arabia this weekend. Adesanya is currently ranked #2 in the middleweight division of the UFC despite coming off two lossess. However, I think that this fight represents his last chance to get his career at the very top level back on the rails before it is done completely.
Adesanya has gone from being one of the hottest stars in all of mixed martial arts to going 2-3 in his last 5, so what’s happened? It feels almost ridiculous to claim that someone in the top 5 of their weight class as being in a ‘do or die’ fight against an opponent who is ranked #5, but here we are. I’ve put together the 3 reasons why I believe this is a must win for Adesanya here:
3. Izzy has already lost to Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis
Even if Adesanya is able to defeat Imavov at UFC Saudi Arabia, he has already lost to both Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis in his last two fights. Strickland and DDP are set to collide in a middleweight championship bout at UFC 312 just a week later. As such, we could quite quickly figure out what the next title fight in the 185-pound division could be later this year.
I do think that Adesanya is going to be given the title fight if he wins on Saturday, even if it isn’t a massively impressive win. A decision win for Adesanya could probably get him the winner of Strickland and DDP, and that in itself would probably be a big main event for a PPV in late 2025. The matchup will depend on what version of ‘The Last Stylebender’ we see.
2. Israel Adesanya is headlining a UFC Fight Night
‘The Last Stylebender’ has been a main event box office draw for the UFC for quite some time now. Adesanya has been in the main event of every PPV card he has fought on since UFC 243, where he defeated Robert Whittaker to retain his title. To see someone of this stature and only at the age of 35 be moved ‘down’ to a UFC Fight Night card is pretty shocking.
I recently wrote about how UFC Fight Nights in foreign nations reigns supreme and how some big names would be in the main event of Fight Night outside of the United States…but Israel Adesanya being in that position? It’s almost unfathomable compared to less than two years ago when he beat Alex Pereira in the main event of UFC 287. It really illustrates the difference when you look at it like this:
| Date | Event | Opponent | Result | Method | Round | Time | Main Event |
| Feb 9, 2019 | UFC 234 | Anderson Silva | Win | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 05:00 | Yes |
| Apr 13, 2019 | UFC 236 | Kelvin Gastelum | Win | Decision (Unanimous) | 5 | 05:00 | No |
| Oct 5, 2019 | UFC 243 | Robert Whittaker | Win | KO (Punches) | 2 | 03:33 | Yes |
| Mar 7, 2020 | UFC 248 | Yoel Romero | Win | Decision (Unanimous) | 5 | 05:00 | Yes |
| Sep 26, 2020 | UFC 253 | Paulo Costa | Win | TKO (Punches and Elbows) | 2 | 03:59 | Yes |
| Mar 6, 2021 | UFC 259 | Jan Blachowicz | Loss | Decision (Unanimous) | 5 | 05:00 | Yes |
| Jun 12, 2021 | UFC 263 | Marvin Vettori | Win | Decision (Unanimous) | 5 | 05:00 | Yes |
| Feb 12, 2022 | UFC 271 | Robert Whittaker | Win | Decision (Unanimous) | 5 | 05:00 | Yes |
| Jul 2, 2022 | UFC 276 | Jared Cannonier | Win | Decision (Unanimous) | 5 | 05:00 | Yes |
| Nov 12, 2022 | UFC 281 | Alex Pereira | Loss | TKO (Punches) | 5 | 02:01 | Yes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | UFC 287 | Alex Pereira | Win | KO (Punches) | 2 | 04:21 | Yes |
| Sep 9, 2023 | UFC 293 | Sean Strickland | Loss | Decision (Unanimous) | 5 | 05:00 | Yes |
| Aug 17, 2024 | UFC 305 | Dricus Du Plessis | Loss | Submission (Face Crank) | 4 | 03:38 | Yes |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UFC Fight Night 250 | Nassourdine Imavov | Scheduled | — | — | — | Yes |
Personally, I think that this is the UFC sending a message to Adesanya: “prove yourself again or we’re moving on to someone else.” The company had Adesanya down as one of their proven draws and biggest stars in the early 2020s. Now, to see how far his stock has fallen is pretty incredible.
Imavov isn’t a pushover and he could genuinely be a threat to Adesanya. So far, he has shown to have a great chin with a well-rounded skillset. So, the Nigerian-Kiwi fighter can’t look past this ‘demotion’ before he tries to head back up the rankings at UFC Saudi Arabia.
1. What big fights are left for Adesanya if he even loses?
Adesanya is currently the favorite coming into his fight with Imavov on Saturday, with the official UFC site giving him odds of -175 compared to the French fighter’s +145. With the oddsmakers giving Adesanya a line like that, it’s not out of the realms of possibility to see Imavov potentially get the biggest win of his MMA career so far at Saudi Arabia.
The problem for Adesanya is who would he even have left to fight at middleweight if a run at the title is once again off the cards? Looking at how the roster is stacked right now, you can only really look at someone like Khamzat Chimaev, which in itself would be a shame because a fight card headlined by Adesanya vs Chimaev for the title could arguably become the best main event of the year.
There’s no clear pathway for Adesanya if he loses at UFC Saudi Arabia. As such, to say that this is a must win for ‘The Last Stylebender’ isn’t an exaggeration at all, he needs this. There is always a chance that Izzy could make the move up to light heavyweight if he loses here.
The former champion does have some slight experience in the weight class, but he has rarely looked for a move to 205 pounds. As such, a career revival could happen if he considers a permanent move? A fight with Alex Pereira for the light heavyweight title would be intriguing from a historical standpoint, but it can only happen if he defeats someone like Jiri Prochazka or other top contenders.
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Jake Skudder
(24 Articles Published)