5 reasons Merab Dvalishvili shouldn’t be considered the underdog at UFC 311 against Umar Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili may the underdog at UFC 311, but that is just the tip of the iceberg.
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Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Merab Dvalishvili faceoff (via MMA Fighting)
Merab Dvalishvili is set to enter the octagon on Saturday night to defend his UFC bantamweight title against Umar Nurmagomedov. Surprisingly, the champion enters as the underdog. According to the moneyline from the official UFC site, Dvalishvili is +230 against Nurmagomedov, who comes in at -285.
You don’t often see the reigning champion heading into a bout as the outsider considering the champion is on an 11-fight winning streak, I think the way the odds are being stacked against him unfairly. So, here are five reasons that I believe he shouldn’t be looked at by the oddsmakers as such an underdog.
1. Merab Dvalishvili has a proven track record against elite competition
Considering the fact that Merab Dvalishvili has gone unbeaten in UFC since 2018 is in itself a reason to not have him ranked as an underdog. When you consider the names that he has beaten along the way, including Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, Henry Cejudo and Sean O’Malley, it’s bordering on ridiculous.
Yes, Nurmagomedov is a sensational fighter, and he genuinely has a chance to be crowned champion on Saturday night. However, all four of those names I just pointed out are either Hall of Fame-guarantees or are on their way there in the next 10 years at least.
Umar Nurmagomedov is 18-0-0 in his professional MMA career, but the highest profile opponent he has had up to this point is Cory Sandhagen. No offense to Sandhagen, but that pales in comparison to the litany of names that the champion has fought and beat.
2. Merab Dvalishvili has unmatched cardio and relentless pace as a bantamweight
There is a reason that Dvalishvili is called “The Machine.” The Georgian fighter has cardio for days, his endurance is sublime, and he is absolutely relentless as soon as the opening bell rings. What’s even more impressive is that he is able to keep the pace up from the first round to the fifth in a title fight.
The bantamweight champion’s ability to outwork his opponent has led him to get clear cut decision wins over O’Malley, Cejudo, Aldo, Yan, and others. His volume of kicks is what he uses to help set up takedowns. Furthermore, he just won’t stop shooting the takedowns.
3. Exceptional wrestling and takedown ability
Dvalishvili has been wrestling for most of his life, with disciplines like Judo and Sambo also helping to round out his stellar takedown approach. He holds a record for the most takedown attempts in a single UFC fight and he is only 5 takedowns away from matching Georges St-Pierre when it comes to the most successful attempts in the history of the UFC.
Merab Dvalishvili has had more successful takedowns than Clay Guida (78), Demetrious Johnson (74), Frankie Edgar (73) and Colby Covington (70). You simply can’t ignore those numbers and think that Nurmagomedov is going to have an easy time stuffing and mauling the champion when it comes to the ground game.
4. ‘The Machine’ has more experience in five-round fights
On top of the fact that Merab Dvalishvili has more experience against a higher-calibre of opponent, you also need to factor in that he has more UFC main events than his opponent. Umar Nurmagomedov has only been in one five-rounder so far in his career, which was his big win over Sandhagen back at UFC on ABC 7 in August of 2024. That was a big part of the reasoning for him to get this title shot at UFC 311.
But experience is experience, and the champion has fought multiple championship-level fighters and won the belt that he is currently holding, so that has to be taken into consideration. There have been so many cases of a promising fighter rising up the ranks, but not being able to get out of their own way mentally to secure a place among the top names in the sport. There’s a chance that Umar could be the next.
5. The Georgian fighter can take you to the mat in multiple ways
Umar is of course related to Khabib Nurmagomedov, and the Dagestani legacy will be echoing through the history of MMA for many years to come. But having said that, Dvalishvili has already proven that he can hang with some of the best grapplers in the game. Moreover, he has shown how he can use a multitude of different takedowns.
Dvalishvili is more than happy to go for a single leg, trip shot or even just crash into his opponent like a rugby tackle coming from a big overhand. When you combine the relentlessness of the champion with his ability to just smash and grab his way through his opponent to grab a limb and take them to the ground, it is frightening.
Even beyond that, he has shown that he will remain active in the clinch and try to take you down from there as well. There aren’t many in the fight game at the top level that I can compare his cage work with. He’s able to fight for knee positioning in the clinch along the fence, and then attempt a slam if the opponent tries to shift their momentum back in their favor.
It is these sorts of traps that Umar is going to have to be wary of if he is going to get the upper hand in the later stages of the fight on Saturday. I’m not 100% sure that the Georgian fighter is going to retain his title this weekend, I’m really not. What I want to see is two fighters with top notch grappling ability trying to gain position on each other.
That is what I’m predicting is going to happen for a large part of the 25-minutes that they’ll be fighting this weekend. What I strongly believe is that the champion is being overlooked in this fight for what many are seeing as an inevitable Nurmagomedov run at the top. ‘The Machine’ might lose, but I think it is a lot closer than the oddsmakers are claiming.
Related: 3 ways Arman Tsarukyan could seek revenge against Islam Makhachev at UFC 311
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Jake Skudder
(20 Articles Published)