Is Elena Rybakina Taking a Risk by Deciding to Play the Pan Pacific Open Before the WTA Finals?

The eight players who have qualified for the WTA Finals are: Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, Mirra Andreeva, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, Elina Svitolina, Karolina Muchova, and Linda Noskova. None of these players were seen in action last week, and they won’t be playing this week either, except for one.

And it’s none other than defending champion Rybakina. The Kazakh ace defeated Sabalenka last year after becoming the last player to qualify.

Last year, in the Ningbo Open final, she defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova and next competed at the Pan Pacific Open, where, following her win over Victoria Mboko in the quarterfinals, she grabbed a spot in the WTA Finals. Rybakina then withdrew from the semifinals, citing physical discomfort. At the WTA Finals, the three-time Grand Slam champion did not lose a match en route to her triumph over Sabalenka.

This year, while the other qualified players chose not to compete in WTA 500 events following the Wuhan Open (the last WTA 1000 of the season), Rybakina competed in Ningbo and is now set to play in Tokyo. In Ningbo, she defended her title by breezing past Leylah Fernandez.

It was the first time in her career that Rybakina successfully defended a title. It was also the first title she clinched as the World No.1 player. Rybakina officially dethroned Sabalenka from the top after the US Open final, becoming the first Kazakh player to do so.

Before competing in Ningbo, Rybakina withdrew from the Wuhan Open due to a lingering foot injury. Her China Open campaign ended in a disappointing fashion as she suffered an opening-round exit, losing to Alina Charaeva. It was her first match since her victory over Sabalenka in the US Open final.

Prior to the US Open, Rybakina played in Cincinnati, where she was forced to hand the walkover to Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals due to that foot injury. Because of this foot issue, her decision to compete in the two WTA 500 events in Ningbo and Tokyo was surprising.

Reigning champion Belinda Bencic won’t be playing in Tokyo. This year’s Roland Garros runner-up Maja Chwalinska was also scheduled to play, but following her victory over Sonay Kartal in the Wuhan Open final, she also pulled out.

Elena Rybakina will play Yulia Putintseva or Maria Sakkari in the Pan Pacific Open opening round

Elena Rybakina will kick off her campaign in Tokyo on October 28. It certainly won’t be surprising if she changes her mind and withdraws. Although Rybakina is expected to carry the momentum to the year-end championships, there’s a risk of aggravating her foot niggle.

But if she plays, then her opening-round opponent will be either Yulia Putintseva or Maria Sakkari. Rybakina holds a 6-1 head-to-head record over the Greek ace, while against her compatriot, she is tied at 2-2.

She will be chasing her fifth title of the season. Earlier this year, following her Australian Open win, she lost to Aryna Sabalenka in the Indian Wells final, then beat Karolina Muchova in Stuttgart before losing to Iga Swiatek at the Canadian Open.

Rybakina then clinched the US Open and the Ningbo Open. It’s the first time in her career that she has won four titles in a season. She is now 15-13 in singles finals.

I remember I was getting very upset, always losing in the finals, and now it’s going my way. Of course, I cannot expect it all the time. The final is the final, and there is an opponent who wants to win as much as you. I hope I can continue this way all the way till my career finishes. For now, it’s working, and I’m really glad that it is going my way.

Elena Rybakina told reporters after her Ningbo Open win

The 27-year-old is just one win away from securing the Year-End World No.1 position for the first time. So even if she fails to win a match in Tokyo, one win in the WTA Finals will ensure she reaches the milestone. The win in Ningbo helped have a 1,951-point lead over Sabalenka.

Rybakina won the WTA Finals for the first time in her career last year in what was also her third appearance in the event. In 2023 and 2024, she failed to reach the semifinals.

The WTA Finals runs from November 8 to November 15 at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. Out of the eight qualified players, only Rybakina, Coco Gauff, and Elina Svitolina have won this title. The two-time Grand Slam singles champion beat Qinwen Zheng in 2024. Sabalenka, before her defeat to Rybakina, lost to Caroline Garcia in the final in 2022.

Pegula finished as the runner-up in 2023, losing to Swiatek, who failed to qualify after she withdrew from the Ningbo Open due to a thigh injury and ended her season. Linda Noskova and Karolina Muchova have qualified for the first time, while Svitolina won in 2018 (beat Sloane Stephens) and finished as the runner-up the following year (lost to Ashleigh Barty).

Also read: Elena Rybakina Makes ‘Very Upset’ Comment After Defending Ningbo Open Title