Tyler Reddick Is 126 Points Behind Kyle Larson: Can Anything Save His Title Hopes at Martinsville?

23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick was one of the drivers that was hurt the most because of wild wrecks last week at Talladega. He is now 126 points behind the leader and needs a miracle this coming Sunday at the iconic Martinsville Speedway to secure the championship that many thought he was destined to win after the impressive five win in eight races start, he had in 2026.

Coming into last week’s race, he was just 56 points gap to Larson up top, and had the momentum on his side owing to the impressive Phoenix win while the No:5 driver DNF-ed. But at Dega, he failed qualify better than P33 and earned a P37 finish following the DNF over the lap 132 wreck, which was caused by fellow title contender Ryan Blaney.

The chaotic Talladega race changed the whole 2026 NASCAR Cup Championship dynamic. Before last Sunday, the top six drivers in the table were less than 50 points from P1. But after the two big wrecks took out majority of the contenders while Kyle Larson secured an impressive win, the gap between P2 and the No:5 driver at the top is 73 points.

The No:45 Toyota Camary driver is still mathematically in the championship chase, alongside five other contenders that includes three JGR and two Penske drivers. In order for him not get eliminated next weeks, he needs to outscore the No:5 driver by at least 51 points, this gives him a mere 0.1% chance of winning the Bill France Cup.

If he is able to reduce the points gap to the required number, his odds will increase to 2.1%, which is also negligible. In order for that to happen, Tyler Reddick needs lady luck on his side.  The 23XI driver has to sweep all the stages of the Martinsville race, that will earn him a 20 points bonus, while finishing inside the top-3 if he couldn’t secure the win.

He also needs Kyle Larson to have a disastrous weekend like the Hendrick Motorsports driver experienced at Phoenix. He has to either DNF or finish outside the top-30, without collecting any significant points in the stages. But the probability of it happening is really low considering other than the odd day at Phoenix, the Chevy racer finished better than P6 in all eight races of the chase.

Tyler Reddick Martinsville stats make it hard to place him in the championship contention

One major challenge Tyler Reddick is going to face going into this week at Martinsville is the fact that he has never finished inside the top-5 at the track. Despite being one of the best short track racers in the garage, he has always failed to be a contender to win the Grandfather clock.

From 13 overall Cups starts he has made in the Cup since making his debut with RCR, he has finished inside the top-10 just twice and has only led six laps. His average start is 16.8 and has a worst average finish of 19.1, that includes two DNFs.

His Truck Series stats at the Track have also never been impressive. From six outing at the iconic Track in the third division, he has secured zero wins, with the two top-5s being his highlight. But he did have an average finish and start below 10, which is a positive he can take as inspiration.

23XI Racing as a team also never been strong at Martinsville. From 23 entries over the years at the track, they have only secure top-5 twice, leading 54 laps. There average start and finish number is almost same as that of Reddick.

All the stats point to one thing, the No:45 team fans need to brace themselves for heartbreaking elimination this Sunday. They can celebrate the six wins he has secured in 2026, more than any other racer, and take advantage of it fight for the title next year.

Also Read: Zane Smith’s Crew Chief Allegedly Threatened to “Beat” Carson Hocevar’s Crew Chief After Phoenix Race