Asia Cup Qualification Scenario: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, or Afghanistan Can Still Qualify with Just One Game Left?

Amidst the issues rising in Group A, Group B has created a three way tussle of its own.

Asia Cup Qualification Scenario: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, or Afghanistan Can Still Qualify with Just One Game Left?

Litton Das and Rashid Khan (via CricTracker)

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With all the off-field chaos that surrounds Group A, that includes both high profile teams India and Pakistan, many fans have missed the intense on field drama in Group B. With three pedigreed sides in one group which are Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, the matters were bound to come down to net run rate, when it came to their qualification to the next round.

The only thing simple enough to understand in Group B’s case is that all three top teams defeated the weaker Hong Kong side rather easily. Sri Lanka had defeated Bangladesh early on in the tournament and with complete dominance.

Many felt that with this kind of poor form, Bangladesh won’t stand a chance against Afghanistan and the qualifications would get simpler. The twist in the tail though, was that Bangladesh beat Afghanistan by 8 runs in a close contest, further creating drama in the group.

With all the matches done for Bangladesh and Hong Kong in Group B, it comes down to one clash to decide whether Sri Lanka, Afghanistan or Bangladesh qualify. That contest is the last one from Group B, and it is Sri Lanka vs. Afghanistan.

Let’s look at the various results possible and their implications for the points table.

Qualification Scenarios for Group B

Sri Lanka Beats Afghanistan: If Sri Lanka beats Afghanistan, it is very clear who goes to the Super 4s. Both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will advance to the Super 4s, with the former having won all three games and sitting on 6 points. Bangladesh would qualify as they would end second in the group with 2 wins and 4 points. Afghanistan will be stranded as they will finish with only 2 points. The net run rate would then be irrelevant.

Sri Lanka needs to beat Afghanistan to confirm qualification.
Sri Lankan batters during Asia Cup (via Al Jazeera)

Afghanistan Beats Sri Lanka: This is where the net run rate will enter the picture and the margin of defeat will make sense. With this result, all three teams will end their group stage campaign on 4 points with 2 wins. Afghanistan though will qualify without trouble as, regardless of the margin of win, their net run rate will be greater than that of Bangladesh.

However, if Afghanistan manages to win big with a big victory margin, it may help Bangladesh as that would drop Sri Lanka’s net run rate below Bangladesh’s. Sri Lanka’s net run rate is +1.546 and Bangladesh’s net run rate is -0.270.

Now, for Sri Lanka’s net run rate to fall below Bangladesh’s net run rate, Afghanistan would have to beat the Lankan side by a margin of either 70 runs or with 50 balls to spare. If any of these scenarios is fulfilled, then Afghanistan and Bangladesh will qualify. Although despite Afghanistan winning, but none of the above scenarios are fulfilled, then Afghanistan and Sri Lanka will qualify.

Afghanistan needs to beat Sri Lanka to confirm qualification.
Afghanistan team (via NDTV Sports)

No Result Due to Rain: This is an unlikely situation, but one cannot be too sure about it too. If the match gets washed out or cancelled due to any circumstances, both Sri Lanka and Afghanistan will share a point each. In that case, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will qualify. A point shared by each would mean that Sri Lanka would top the group with 5 points and Bangladesh would end second with 4. Afghanistan would be left stranded with only 3 points next to its name.

There are complications. However, both Sri Lanka and Afghanistan have their fortunes in their own hands for a start. Bangladesh, having completed all their matches, is the team that would be praying for a Sri Lankan win to start with. If not, then a big Afghanistan win, otherwise, it would be curtains for their campaign.

The Group B tussle has played out just as expected. However, the interest of the cricketing world still sticks to what is unfolding in the other group, with both India and Pakistan having more off field issues than the ones on the field.

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