How Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka can replace Iga Swiatek as world number 1 after Roland Garros?

Aryna Sabalenka could become World No. 1 at the 2023 French Open

How Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka can replace Iga Swiatek as world number 1 after Roland Garros?

Image Credit: Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka (ATP)

Iga Swiatek has been WTA World No. 1 for the past 55 weeks. With her cumulative WTA points of 8940, she is currently 1399 points ahead of Aryna Sabalenka and 3850 points ahead of Elena Rybakina. But things could change swiftly for the 21-year-old Pole. Aryna Sabalenka could take over the World No. 1 spot if things go south for Iga at the French Open early on.

Here is how: Iga Swiatek will be defending 2000 WTA points of her current 8940 points, as she was the Roland Garros champion last year. Whereas Sabalenka, who currently has 7541 points, will defend only a total of 310 points. The 310 points were accrued from the French Open (130) and the Libema Open (180) in 2022. There are several scenarios in which Sabalenka gets to the top as her active lead over Swiatek comes up to 291.

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Now if Iga Swiatek crashes out before the quarterfinal stage, she will only defend 240 of her 2000 points. That will make her points equal to 7180. In this scenario, Sabalenka doesn’t need to win even a single match at the French Open to reach WTA rank 1, as she would be at 7231.

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However, more interestingly, it’s highly unlikely for Iga to crash out of Roland Garros in the first week. In case Iga reaches the quarterfinal but loses, she will retain 430 points, which will bring her tally to 7370. In that case, if Sabalenka has to claim the No. 1 spot, she will have to at least reach the 4th round, which will award her 240 points (7471). Ultimately, if Iga Swiatek makes it to the final stage, Sabalenka would also have to reach the final and defeat Iga to dethrone her from the No. 1 spot..

Looking at the history of their individual runs at Roland Garros, this seems like an uphill task for Sabalenka. Aryna Sabalenka has never been beyond the third round at the French Open. Whereas Iga won two French Open titles in 2020 and 2022.

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Elena Rybakina taking the number 2 spot might be a bit of a stretch

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Image Credit: Aryna Sabalenka (Instagram), Elena Rybakina (The NY Times), Iga Swiatek (RedBull)

Elena Rybakina‘s cumulative points currently stand at 5090. She too is defending merely 130 points at Roland Garros and 20 points at the Libema Open. The only way in which Rybakina could secure the No. 2 spot is if she wins the Roland Garros title and Iga Swiatek doesn’t win a single match. In that case, both of them will be tied at 6940. And Sabalenka would be at the top even if she lost in the first round.

However, in the live ranking, Aryna Sabalenka is leading with 4840 points, whereas Elena Rybakina is in 2nd place with 4276 points. Iga Swiatek is only in third place with 3145 points. With Iga’s injury that flared up at the Italian Open, there are some clouds of doubt about the Pole defending her 2000 points. Elena Rybakina, on the other hand, is in great form, having won the Italian Open.

She won the Indian Wells Open this year and was also a finalist at the Miami Open. Her chances of winning Roland Garros are quite high, and there could be a good chance of a shuffle of ranking at the WTA. Currently right above her is Jessica Pegula with WTA points of 5205. She is defending 430 points and that is a good chunk and if Rybakina plays deep into French Open, she will easily take over Jessica’s rank No. 3.

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