How can Australia still qualify for semi-finals after humiliating loss to Afghanistan?

Australia may have to bank upon too many secondary factors in order to qualify for the semi-finals.

How can Australia still qualify for semi-finals after humiliating loss to Afghanistan?

Australia qualifying chances, Image courtesy: X

The cricket world was left stunned in one of the biggest upsets in history of the sport as Afghanistan tumbled Australia in the Super Eight encounter to open up the table in Group 1. And as soon as the incredible happened, the most obvious and asked question in the world is what are the scenarios for Australia to qualify for the semi-final?

Firstly, a closer look at the points table of the T20 World Cup will explain the current situation. India tops the chart with two wins from two games and a NRR of +2.425. Next in line is Australia with one win from two games and a NRR of +0.223. Afghanistan is third in the table with one win from two games and a NRR of -0.650. Bangladesh has been virtually eliminated with two losses from two games and a NRR of -2.489.

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If India wins their game against Australia, they sail hammer and tongs to the next round. However, that doesn’t entirely eliminate Australia. If Bangladesh is able to defeat Afghanistan by a comprehensive margin, then Australia will sail through on the merit of a superior NRR despite a defeat to India.

However, the most favourable scenario for Australia to qualify will be to beat India and hope that Afghanistan doesn’t win against Bangladesh. If Afghanistan wins against Bangladesh and Australia fails to get the better of India, that would mean that Afghanistan will be featuring in their first-ever semi-final of the T20 World Cup at the expense of a deflated Australia.

Now there may be another question on the block and that is will India be eliminated? In terms of points even if they lose, unless they suffer a terrible defeat, let’s say by more than 80 or 90 runs or let’s say whatever they post, it is not being chased down within eight to nine overs, they are safe.

Will Afghanistan qualify even if they lose to Bangladesh? Chances are actually there. If India beats Australia emphatically, it means that their NRR will drop. Now with Bangladesh winning, their NRR will definitely be on the rise but to try and brave Afghanistan’s NRR, it is almost impossible.

So the best case scenario for Australia is to win against India and hope that Afghanistan doesn’t do something ridiculous to steamroll Bangladesh that takes their NRR over them. Also, if rain comes into play and washes away both the games, then Australia goes through. If it washes away India vs Australia, then Afghanistan goes through with a superior win. If it washes away Afghanistan vs Bangladesh and Australia wins, they sail through.

A glimpse at the iconic upset between Australia and Afghanistan

It was a dramatic encounter as Afghanistan batted first and posted 148/6 at the end of 20 overs. Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran were the top acts with scores of 60 and 51 respectively. Pat Cummins claimed a hattrick to lead the Australia bowling battery.

Australia
Afghanistan cricket team, image courtesy: X

The Afghan bowlers were on a roll, crushing Australia as Gulbadin Naib’s 4/20 and Naveen-ul-Haq‘s 3/20 rattled the cricket powerhouse despite Glenn Maxwell‘s warring 59.

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