Indian Wells 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys preview, prediction, and live stream details

Aryna Sabalenka has inched closer to her first Indian Wells singles title. On Thursday (March 13), Sabalenka went past Liudmila Samsonova 6-2, 6-3 to reach the semifinals.

Sabalenka is set to lock horns with Madison Keys next. The upcoming match will be a rematch for the 2025 Australian Open. A win in the semifinals could set up a final clash with World No.2 Iga Swiatek who will be facing Mirra Andreeva in a rematch of the Dubai Open quarterfinals.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys: Match Details

• Surface: Outdoor hard court
• Tournament: Indian Wells 2025
• Match: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys
• Date: March 14, 2025
• Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden
• Round: Semifinal
• Time: 9:00 p.m. local time

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys: Match Preview

Aryna Sabalenka kick-started her 2025 campaign at the Brisbane International. She reached the final and beat Polina Kudermetova in three sets to win the title. Sabalenka then progressed to back-to-back finals. At the Australian Open, she was all set to become a three-time defending champion, but Madison Keys spoiled that plan, securing her career’s first Grand Slam title in three sets.

Following the Australian Open heartbreak, the Belarusian was knocked out of her Qatar Open opener as Ekaterina Alexandrova beat her in three sets. At the Dubai Open, it was no different. She lost to Clara Tauson in the third round.

Sabalenka left the Australian Open heartbreak and her disappointing campaign in the Middle East Swing behind to prepare for Indian Wells. She’s yet to drop a set in the California desert. En route to the Indian Wells semifinals, Sabalenka knocked out McCartney Kessler, Lucia Bronzetti, Sonay Kartal, and Liudmila Samsonova.

Keys, on the other hand, is playing in her first tournament since the Australian Open. She started her season at the ASB Classic where she made it to the quarterfinals following which Keys won the Adelaide International with a three-set win over Jessica Pegula.

At the Melbourne Slam, Keys, en route to the trophy, eliminated Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek in the fourth round and semifinals, respectively. At Indian Wells, unlike Sabalenka, Keys didn’t have a smooth run.

The 30-year-old dropped a set against Elise Mertens in the third round and against 2024 Olympic silver medalist Donna Vekic in the fourth round. She is 18-1 this season and is on a 16-match win streak.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys: Match Prediction

Despite the Australian Open defeat against Madison Keys, Aryna Sabalenka will enter the match as the favorite to win. The World No.1 is a doubles champion in the tournament, as she and Elise Mertens lifted the title in 2019. She is also a finalist in the California desert, reaching the summit clash in 2023 and fell to Elena Rybakina.

Keys, however, has never reached the semifinals at Indian Wells before this year. She’s a quarterfinalist in the third WTA 1000 tournament of the season, reaching the last eight in 2022. Last year, Yulia Putintseva knocked her out of the third round.

The semifinal match between the two will be their seventh clash on the WTA Tour. They have faced each other in Cincinnati, Berlin, Wimbledon, New York, Beijing, and Melbourne. Sabalenka, although she is 0-1 this season against the American, leads 4-2 in their overall head-to-head record.

The American crowd, too, could play a role. Sabalenka never liked playing when the crowd was against her and it affected her final against Coco Gauff in the 2023 US Open. She had even urged the crowd to show some support against Keys on Thursday.

Match Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys: Live Stream Details

• Australia – beIN Sports
• New Zealand– Tennis TV
• India – Discovery India
• USA – Tennis Channel
• UK – Sky UK
• Canada – TSN

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