Indian Wells draw analysis: Iga Swiatek handed a tough match-up with Elena Rybakina, Jelena Ostapenko and other major stunners

The Pole is eyeing her second title in three years at the prestigious tournament but now faces a tricky path on her way to the title.

Indian Wells draw analysis: Iga Swiatek handed a tough match-up with Elena Rybakina, Jelena Ostapenko and other major stunners

Iga Swiatek (Image via IMAGO)

World No. 1 Iga Swiatek has made a cracking start to the 2024 season. She guided Poland to a runner-up finish at the 2024 United Cup remaining unbeaten at the tournament in all her matches.

After her shocking third-round exit to Linda Noskova at the 2024 Australian Open, she bounced back with a title. She clinched the 2024 Qatar Open, securing her third straight title at the WTA-1000 event. Swiatek made another good run next week in Dubai but fell to qualifier Anna Kalinskaya in the semis.

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She did not sign up for any event after that as she took a small break. The Pole will now feature as the top seed at the 2024 Indian Wells Open. She was the champion at the event in 2022 and reached the semis in 2023. She was defeated by eventual winner Elena Rybakina ending her title defense.

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As is the norm in Indian Wells, all seeds get a bye in the first round which places Swiatek in the second round directly. She will start her campaign against the winner of the clash between Danielle Collins and a yet-to-be-confirmed qualifier.

She can target avenging her Melbourne Park defeat in the third round as a potential clash with Noskova is on the cards. However, with San Diego champ Katie Boulter also in the same bracket, Swiatek could take on either of the two. The rankings from the previous week have been used.

Due to this, Boulter remains unseeded despite her new rank of World No. 27. In the fourth round, local girl Madison Keys or Ekaterina Alexandrova are likely to be her opponents. The American is seeded 18th while the Russian is seeded 15th at this year’s event.

Kryptonite Jelena Ostapenko and defending champ Elena Rybakina cross Iga Swiatek’s path

If the former champ makes it to the quarter-finals, she will have one of the biggest tasks at hand. Latvian controversial icon Jelena Ostapenko along with Tunisian No. 1 Ons Jabeur are two probable opponents for Swiatek in the last-8. While she leads Jabeur 5-2, Ostapenko has a big 4-0 lead against the Pole.

Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek with her 2022 Indian Wells trophy (Image via IMAGO)

If luck favors the four-time Grand Slam title winner this time, it could be a rematch of last year’s semis. Defending champ Rybakina is set to be her potential semi-final opponent. The other top seed could be reigning Wimbledon champ Marketa Vondrousova.

In the finals, Swiatek can expect either Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, or Jessica Pegula if only the big names are considered. With a positive H2H record against all three players, the odds are certainly in Swiatek’s favor. But it will be a long journey before she can win her second Indian Wells title.

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