Why One Voter Gave Justin Herbert an MVP Vote in the Closest Race in Two Decades
Justin Herbert received one first place vote in the 2025 NFL MVP race, that squandered Drake Maye's chance of becoming the best player in football.
Justin Herbert and Drake Maye inside the circle (Image via IMAGO)
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Chaos erupted on social media when the AP revealed the vote margin by which Drake Maye conceded the 2025 NFL MVP crown to Matthew Stafford. As it turns out, Stafford bagged his maiden best player award by just one first-place vote. And that one vote went to a surprise candidate, Justin Herbert.
The reason behind calling Herbert’s inclusion as surprising is that he wasn’t even considered in the running. Mainly, Maye and Stafford were the two favorites. Stafford received 24 votes, while the Patriots’ second-year quarterback came in close behind with 23 first-place votes.
It’s no surprise that questions came up about who the voter really was. The voter quickly emerged from the shadows. Sam Monson, a frequent contributor for The 33rd Team, co-host of the Check the Mic podcast alongside Steve Palazzolo, and a former employee of Pro Football Focus, posted a series of tweets defending his vote for Herbert.
Monson pointed out that Herbert was the “most valuable” player on the Chargers team. Without him, the AFC West club doesn’t qualify for the playoffs. His stats weren’t as flashy as Stafford’s or Maye’s, but he also didn’t have the advantage of playing behind a strong offensive line.
MVP is the single hardest award to 'correctly' determine, because the focus is on 'value', which is basically impossible to objectively evaluate with so many dependencies.
— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) February 6, 2026
But the idea that one vote altered a guy's legacy is stupid.
More people than not thought each candidate…
He makes a valid point. According to a study by NFL Lines, the Chargers’ O-line had the worst pass blocking percentage (54%) out of all 32 NFL teams in 2025. They thoroughly missed Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, who spent the entire year on injured reserve.
The Chargers finished second in the division behind the Denver Broncos and went on to the wild-card round, where the Patriots’ defense completely exposed them. Herbert threw for just 159 yards, zero touchdowns, took 6 sacks, fumbled the ball twice, and lost possession once. LA scored only three points across four quarters.
Tom Brady’s old statement about Justin Herbert resurfaces after the MVP debacle
Herbert takes plenty of heat from rival fan groups, but there’s no questioning the incredible talent that right arm. He thrives in the regular season, as he displayed last year. However, his playoff record only screams wasted potential.

Even seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady believes Herbert has all the talent in the world to challenge Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow, but he needs like-minded players around him, starting with fixing the offensive line.
If they protect Justin Herbert, he’s the best passer in the league. Get him help with quick plays and screens, and support him with the run game to avoid unnecessary hits.
Tom Brady said on The Herd
Tom Brady on FOX:
— ًBoltUpYo (@BoltUpYo) October 5, 2025
“If they protect Justin Herbert, he’s the best passer in the league."
Brady knows ball. 🐐 pic.twitter.com/O22egRLHXK
During the Broncos game at SoFi Stadium, Herbert connected with veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen for a touchdown pass that, according to Next Gen Stats, had only a 16.7% chance of completion.
Justin Herbert's 20-yard touchdown pass to Keenan Allen had a completion probability of 16.7%, Herbert's most improbable completion since Week 8, 2024.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 21, 2025
🔹 Herbert's Speed: 12.85 mph
🔹 Allen's Separation: 0.6 yards#DENvsLAC | #BoltUppic.twitter.com/3VZs68HFoY
Jim Harbaugh has had a solid impact on Herbert since taking over as head coach two years ago. That being said, his numbers should improve now that Mike McDaniel is the new offensive coordinator. However, it all comes down to the offensive line. If it’s not resolved, a quarterback, no matter how talented, won’t be able to perform properly and might even risk getting injured.
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