Why UFC 311 needs to be a massive hit for Dana White

UFC 311 is set to take place this weekend, and considering where the Ultimate Fighting Championship is as a business, it is imperative for Dana White and co. for the buy rate to be massive. With a card featuring Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan for the lightweight title, Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov and Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder, it is definitely doable.

Bloomberg reported over the past weekend that the company were looking for a new television deal worth $1 billion per year. The company’s current deal with ESPN is worth around $750 million per year, so while its not out of the question for the biggest MMA promotion in the world to get the numbers they’re looking for, they need to be running hot to come to the negotiating table with an attractive offering.

Who could UFC go to when the ESPN deal is over?

UFC’s deal with ESPN is set to end in 2026, with their initial deal signed back in 2019. TV rights negotiations can easily take a year or so when it comes to major sporting properties. As such, Dana White’s company will look to secure something even as early as we are into 2025.

The $1.5 billion deal with ESPN was/is still of course a huge number. However, considering how the world of sports content is consumed by viewers in 2025, there is potentially a lot more now on the table. Beyond the “standard” television networks, you’ve got the likes of Amazon, Warner Bros Discovery and Netflix now getting into sports streaming.

One of the biggest factors that makes this rights deal different is that UFC are now under the TKO Group banner alongside WWE, so there may well be more synergy in how they look to negotiate. WWE began their own major streaming deal with Netflix this year, with the flagship show Monday Night RAW airing on the platform every week live, becoming the first weekly live-streaming offering on Netflix.

It is an incredible deal for users outside of the United States, who now get all of WWE’s current programming (including RAW, SmackDown, NXT and all of the monthly PLE shows) for a standard Netflix subscription. For users in the US though, to watch everything that WWE has on offer they need to be subscribed to Netflix (for RAW), watch USA Network (NXT and SmackDown) and subscribe to Peacock (PLE shows).

Is this a model that the UFC could follow, providing fans outside the US with a one-size-fits-all package whereas the domestic fanbase will need to start subscribing to multiple platforms?

Is this the death of UFC PPV?

Something that UFC has to its advantage over other combat sports is the fact that their PPV model is still working in their favor. Considering the fact that multiple competitors in the US are offering big fights on television or streaming (ONE FC on Amazon Prime for example), it is amazing that the biggest Ultimate Fighting Championship fight cards are still in the $70-80 range to watch live.

Despite that, piracy is definitely something that affects UFC, and a move to a streaming giant like Netflix could all but eliminate that problem. The music industry had a huge issue with piracy and file sharing during the early 2000s, but the advent of iTunes and then the creation of Spotify, giving users access to a huge amount of content for a low monthly fee, all but eliminated that problem on a wider scale.

If UFC decided to sell all of their content to say, Netflix (just like their TKO partners WWE), then they would be getting guaranteed pay without the worry of piracy affecting their buy rates for major events. I don’t think that’ll be the case, but I do think there is a chance that UFC Fight Night shows could end up on Netflix.

Why UFC 311 is so important

UFC 311 is a huge event for the company. Right now, Makhachev and Dvalishvili are two of the best champions that they have, and being able to show that they can still draw on PPV in a big way will go a long way to securing a major new deal. The goal for UFC with this new rights deal will be to find a way to reach more homes in 2026, expanding the reach of MMA and building the brand as a mainstream entity.

The ‘brand’ of the UFC is what they need to continue to grow, because although most people on the street see MMA/cage fighting and UFC as interchangeable terms (just like WWE and pro wrestling), they do not have the star power right now that they had when they negotiated the deal for 2019.

You have to remember that 2018 had the likes of Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov in October, that’s the biggest PPV the company has ever produced. Even before that, you had Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou in January, Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje in April and Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier in July. It was a huge year for UFC, and the $1.5 billion rights deal they secured would’ve massively factored in the hype and buzz around the product at that point in time.

The sport of MMA has continued to grow year on year, but right now the UFC does not have the star power that it had in the late 2010s. As such, events like UFC 311 will need to be epic to get the buzz level to a point that further helps their negotiating power when it comes to the 2026 deal.

Personally, I think they’re going to sign a deal with Netflix, Prime or even another streaming company to bring Fight Night shows to the platform as of 2026 while still keeping their lucrative PPV model. Having said that, imagine if Netflix throw out the sort of numbers they gave WWE…all UFC events outside the US as part of my standard Netflix subscription? Yes please.

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