3 ways Sean Strickland can shock Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 312
Despite being the underdog, there are still ways for Sean Strickland to claim revenge against Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 312.
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Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis rematches for middleweight belt (via MMA Fighting)
Sean Strickland is set to challenge Dricus Du Plessis for the UFC middleweight championship this Saturday night at UFC 312. Whilst DDP comes into the contest as the odds on favorite (-218 to +180 on the official UFC.com moneyline), there is a chance that Strickland could cause an upset and reclaim his place at the top of the 185lb division.
When you look at the statistics of both fighters, it shows a pretty even contest on paper. Strickland has the advantage in a couple of areas. I’m going to be discussing this in this, and show why there’s a pretty good chance of him getting his hand raised on Saturday night’s UFC 312.
| Statistic | Dricus Du Plessis | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 22-2-0 | 29-6-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 12:21 | 15:39 |
| Height | 6′ 1″ | 6′ 1″ |
| Weight | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach | 76″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of Birth | Jan 14, 1994 | Feb 27, 1991 |
| Strikes Landed per Min (SLpM) | 6.18 | 6.01 |
| Striking Accuracy | 49% | 42% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min (SApM) | 4.85 | 4.48 |
| Defense | 54% | 61% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min | 3.04 | 0.78 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 50% | 64% |
| Takedown Defense | 50% | 77% |
| Submission Average/15 min | 0.9 | 0.2 |
1. Sean Strickland has superior striking defense and durability
Strickland comes into this fight with a higher striking defensive record than DDP at 61% compared to 54%. The American fighter prefers to keep his fights on the feet (which is massively highlighted by his 0.78 takedown average per 15 minutes). So, being able to withstand the power of the champion whilst keeping up his own striking output will be massively important at UFC 312.
Another stat that really caught my eye is the Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute, as Strickland has managed to avoid more than DDP at 4.48 compared to 4.85. Yes, this is pretty marginal. However, when it comes to the highest level of combat sports these are the sorts of margins that determine championship fights.
If Strickland can run his gameplan of keeping the fight on the feet and avoiding a ton of output from DDP, then he may emerge victorious. Despite the fact that DDP has a slightly better Strikes Landed per Minute stat at 6.18 to 6.0, Strickland outlanded him in significant strikes in their first bout 173-137. As such, he will aim to keep that output up to try and stop the champ from taking it to ground.
2. Slight cardio and fight pace advantage
Strickland does have the experience advantage coming into the fight, with 35 pro contests competed in MMA compared to DDP’s 24. Strickland’s average fight time is also a lot higher than du Plessis’, coming in at 15:39 to 12:21. ‘Tarzan’s last three fights have all gone the full 5 rounds with a 2-1 record (one being the initial loss to Du Plessis). As such, he has the cardio and pacing to go the distance if needed.
The only full 5 rounder of DDP’s career was actually his win against Strickland back at UFC 297. While that does give him the mental advantage coming into this rematch, he does have technically less experience going the full 25 minutes inside the octagon. There were so many question marks over Du Plessis’ cardio before he managed to go the full five rounds against Strickland last year.
DDP would tend to start strong, and not control his gas tank that well earlier in his UFC career. However, he seems to have worked on those problems in recent fights. While Strickland will have an advantage on the cardio front I think it isn’t anywhere near what it would’ve been even two years ago.
Strickland will need to keep the volume high and the pressure on DDP to test his cardio again in this one, because I can easily see it going the distance again and potentially being a split decision. ‘Tarzan’ is going to need to be even more relentless in his striking volume whilst also avoiding the takedown that is inevitably going to come from the South African champion.
3. Sean Strickland has elite Takedown Defense (77%)
As I’ve already mentioned, Du Plessis has a far bigger advantage in offensive grappling compared to Strickland. Nevertheless, Strickland has an unbelievable 77% takedown defense record. Strickland will need to be eyeballing for the takedown for the full 5 rounds, because technical, high-volume striking is not where DDP wants to be trying to control the action in the octagon.
Despite the fact that Strickland doesn’t attempt anywhere as near as many takedowns as DDP, he does have the advantage when it comes to consistency. If Strickland decides that he does want to go for a takedown against Du Plessis (which is extremely unlikely), then his 64% takedown accuracy (compared to du Plessis’ 50%) shows that he does have the grappling ability to call up if needed.
In the original bout, Strickland did not attempt any takedowns against his rival. However, DDP attempted 11 and was successful with 6 of them for a 55% record over the 5 rounds. I do not think that Strickland’s gameplan is going to involve grappling with his opponent. If the fight goes to the ground or they start grappling on the feet, DDP is just going to steamroll his opponent like most might think.
This is a huge fight for the middleweight division, and with Israel Adesanya now seemingly done inside the octagon this is a chance for someone to establish themselves as top dog for a long time. I don’t see anyone else in the top 10 that I think could outright beat DDP right now (aside from Khamzat Chimaev). As such, the winner of UFC 312 main event at the weekend should hold on to the belt for a while at least.
Related: Dricus Du Plessis Net Worth, Endorsements, UFC contract, Wife and House
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