3 reasons why Sergei Pavlovich could be a tougher Tom Aspinall opponent than Jon Jones, IF he beats Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Sergei Pavlovich lost to Tom Aspinall at UFC 295, but could still give a tough outing to the Brit than Jon Jones.
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Sergei Pavlovich will eye the winner of the potential Jon Jones vs. Tom Aspinall title fight (Image via UFC.com/TNT Sports)
Sergei Pavlovich is set to face Jairzinho Rozenstruik this weekend at UFC Fight Night in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The main card bout could have massive implications for the top of the heavyweight division in the UFC. Tom Aspinall is looking for his next challenger for the ‘baddest man on the planet’ moniker, and Pavlovich could well be the man to challenge him in the coming months.
The dream match that nearly everyone wants to see is Aspinall getting back in the octagon to unify his UFC interim heavyweight championship against Jon Jones. With Jones not fully committing to get back into the cage to face the Brit for anything less than an astronomical amount of money, it may well not happen.
Despite Jones being the optimal opponent for Aspinall and the chance for the fight to smash box office records, I actually think that Pavlovich could represent a different and “tougher” challenge for Aspinall in what would be a big-time rematch. Here are the three reasons why I think Pavlovich could be more of threat to the title reign of Aspinall than Jones at this point.
Sergei Pavlovich has more heavyweight experience than Jon Jones
There is absolutely no doubt that Jon Jones is one of the greatest fighters in the history of MMA (doping scandals notwithstanding), you cannot look past that point. However, many of Jones’ greatest accomplishments came in the light heavyweight division.
The main reason for him to make the jump up to heavyweight was to fight Francis Ngannou in what would’ve been the best heavyweight matchup in history. That fight obviously never materialized, and while Jones is the reigning heavyweight champion in the company, he has only fought twice in the weight category. This is far below the amount of experience Pavlovich has in the division.
On top of that, you have to consider the level of fighter that Jones has faced. Ciryl Gane is a top, top fighter, but Jones did pretty much what he wanted against him. ‘Bones’ has had so much more experience in the cage. In the end, the outcome at UFC 285 was disappointing, considering many fans felt Gane could defeat Jones.
Stipe Miocic is the greatest heavyweight champion in UFC history, no doubt. However, when Jones faced him in November 2024, Miocic had not fought since March 2021 and he was nowhere near being a championship contender at that point. Jones got the fight against the legend he wanted, but for fans it came about 5 years too late to mean anything.
Sergei Pavlovich is a more natural heavyweight than Jones
Jones fought most of his career at the light heavyweight level, and he is arguably the best to ever do it in the division. The current champion just looks so much sharper, lean and powerful at LHW because it is his natural weight class. As I mentioned in the last section, the only reason he even considered going up to was to get the Ngannou fight because there was no way that ‘The Predator’ could drop to 205lbs.
Pavlovich’s run in the Heavyweight ranks has been impressive, he has already beaten Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa and Curtis Blaydes. Moreover, all of these fights ended in a knockout. Right now, he’s going through a slump after losing back-to-back against Aspinall and Alexander Volkov.
I don’t believe that Aspinall is going to get outpaced by Jones in the octagon, especially in the heavyweight division. So, he needs to be going up against someone who could match him in power. Not only does Pavlovich represent one of the only fighters right now who would feasibly match the British fighter for knockdown power, there’s stats to back it up.
Sergei Pavlovich has similar KO power to Tom Aspinall
As of writing, Pavlovich has an extremely similar knockdown average to Aspinall. According to the latest statistics on UFC Stats, Pavlovich has 3.2 knockdowns average per 15 min, coming in at 4th in the history of the company. Aspinall comes in at 4.09 knockdowns on average per 15 minutes, which when you consider is better than legends like Shane Carwin is extremely impressive.
No one in the division right now comes even close to matching the stats that Aspinall is putting up right now, with Pavlovich also getting into the Shortest Average Fight Time Top 10 with 3:39 compared to Aspinall’s 2:02. Both men can end the fight quickly, and this would be a quick firefight between two fighters that have devastating knockout power…not something I see Jones trying to match Aspinall at.
The Russian is a threat, but never forget how good the ‘GOAT’ is
I feel like I need to reiterate here that Jones is one the greatest ever, he has the most title fight wins in the history of UFC at 16 (and no one active is anywhere near him). But, I don’t think that he poses as big a threat to Aspinall as Pavlovich could do if the two were to get the rematch.
A fight between Jones and Aspinall would be a more balanced approach from ‘Bones’ against a man who likes to get in there and finish his fights early. Jones would try to test the gas tank of the British fighter, whereas Pavlovich would go in there and trade blows with Aspinall.
It genuinely would come down to who is able to land the biggest power punch in an Aspinall vs. Pavlovich rematch. There would be an element of luck involved and it feels closer to 50/50 in terms of raw power. A Jones vs. Aspinall fight would likely see Jones come in as the underdog, as great as he is, so I can’t put Jones ahead of Pavlovich right now as a genuine threat to the British heavyweight star.
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Jake Skudder
(24 Articles Published)