Martina Navratilova Astonished by Novak Djokovic’s Australian Open Semifinal Win Despite Statistical Inferiority: “On Paper, Sinner Wins”

Novak Djokovic beat Jannik Sinner for the first time in almost three years on tour.

Martina Navratilova Astonished by Novak Djokovic’s Australian Open Semifinal Win Despite Statistical Inferiority: “On Paper, Sinner Wins”

Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Martina Navratilova (via Jannik Sinner/Tennis Channel/BBC)

Jannik Sinner fell to Novak Djokovic in an epic semi-final clash at the Australian Open in the early hours of Saturday (January 31). The two-time defending champion was seeking to reach the final for the first time in a row, hitting 72 winners, 26 more than Djokovic, but failed to stop the Serbian legend.

Sinner was the overwhelming favorite heading into his match against Djokovic. He had beaten Djokovic five consecutive times on tour, including twice at Grand Slam semi-finals last year and at the Melbourne in 2024. The Italian star played with a dominant style that often forces his opponents to make mistakes on the court.

Twice last year, he had beaten Djokovic easily, particularly at the Wimbledon Championship semi-finals. Also, Djokovic was expected to lose to Sinner in the semi-finals at Melbourne Park, having had a walkover win in the fourth round after Jakub Mensik withdrew and Lorenzo Musetti retired injured in the quarter-finals.

But the 38-year-old gave one of the most electric performances of his career, coming from two sets to one to beat Sinner. He lost the opening set after Sinner broke him twice, but reacted well in the second and fourth sets before overcoming the World No.2 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 after almost four hours at the Rod Laver Arena.

Throughout the match, Sinner led Djokovic in most of the statistics, including points on the first serve, points on the second serve, and overall winners. During a conversation on Tennis Channel, Martina Navratilova revealed that despite the scoreline, Sinner would have won the match if it were based on statistics:

Well, it’s clear as day. Break points won. I mean, if Sinner converts any of those early break points in the fifth set, he could have won the set 6-2. Instead, Novak cashed it in. Sinner was trying to go to the Novak backhand a little too much. I think he should have run him around the court more, but look at the winners. Plus 26 for Sinner, but those numbers just don’t mean anything. On paper, Sinner wins this match hands down.

Sinner will drop points for failing to defend the Australian Open championship, but he will remain in World No.2. He will hope to bounce back from the loss next month and also has the chance of completing a Career Grand Slam at the French Open in June. He reached the final of the Roland Garros last year before losing to Alcaraz.

Martina Navratilova admits the narrative has changed about Djokovic’s career

Novak Djokovic was set to be on his way out of the tournament in the quarter-finals. Despite having more time to rest and prepare than his opponent, Lorenzo Musetti, he was nowhere near his best against the Italian star. He was two sets down before he began struggling with a left leg injury, which forced him to retire in the third set.

Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic (via Australian Open)

After the match, several analysts believed that he was not going to beat Jannik Sinner, but he shocked the Tennis world by beating the World No.2 in five sets. During the aforementioned discussion, Martina Navratilova noted that narratives around Djokovic have gone from likely exit to making history:

Against Musetti, down two-sets-to-love, Musetti gets hurt, he played terrible, I mean, Novak played terrible. That was the worst match I’d seen him play in years. Then he comes out here, if he had lost in three sets or four sets, we’re still like, well, maybe the time has come. Instead, he’s now in the conversation not just here but for the rest of the year.

Djokovic is seeking to become the oldest man to win the Australian Open singles title. He will face Carlos Alcaraz in the final on Sunday (February 1) at the Rod Laver Arena. Should he win the title, he will take his Grand Slam tally to 25.

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