Can Mercedes be F1’s dark horse in 2025?

Toto Wolff's squad might find itself in the battle at the front this year despite having an underwhelming campaign in 2024.

Can Mercedes be F1’s dark horse in 2025?

George Russell and Kimi Antonelli (via @GeorgeRussell63/X)

The 2024 F1 season was a two-way contest between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris. While Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc trailed slightly behind. However, the upcoming season could pose a surprise in the battle at the front of the grid.

On paper, Mercedes seem to be in the worst state out of the Top 4. The Silver Arrows have lost Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari, while finishing fourth in the constructors’ standings. Moreover, the British team has not seem overtly expressed confidence in George Russell as its future team leader.

YouTube video

Nevertheless, Toto Wolff‘s team has made some progress since the start of the ground-effect era. The Silver Arrows might have a few aces up its sleeves that could potentially make them the dark horse in the upcoming season of Formula 1.

FS Video

Mercedes can surprise the paddock this year

Kimi Antonelli will fill in the shoes left by Ferrari-bound Lewis Hamilton at Brackley. The 18-year-old will make his debut in F1 with Mercedes, skipping the conventional norm of racing for a midfield team at the start. This is a gamble made by Wolff. Though, it seems that the team is confident Antonelli can shine from the start.

Toto Wolff, George Russell and Kimi Antonelli (via Formula1.com)
Toto Wolff, George Russell and Kimi Antonelli (via Formula1.com)

The Italian driver will be allowed to make mistakes in his rookie season, to allow him to have the freedom to be comfortable. Kimi Antonelli is seen as one of the most promising young talents, who can potentially even match George Russell as teammate.

Moreover, Mercedes has the most wind tunnel and CFD time amongst the Top 4 over the winter break. If used effectively, Toto Wolff’s team can make crucial progress compared to McLaren and Ferrari who have significantly less development allowances. In the tightly-packed grid, even the smallest of margins can make the difference.

George Russell would be looking to establish himself as the de-facto leader at the Silver Arrows. As such, the Briton will likely avoid any rush decisions and focus on working for the team. If things fall in place, Russell could potentially become a threat for victories.

Certainly, Mercedes is not the favorite for the 2025 title. Yet, if the Silver Arrows manage the campaign properly, they can indeed transform into a real challenger for the championship. However, the first step for this possibility is to create a car capable of fighting for wins from the first race of the season.