Novak Djokovic’s qualification scenario: The Serb’s fate for ATP Finals semis not in his hands as the group splits up wide open

Novak Djokovic might not qualify for the semifinals even if he beats Hubert Hurkacz in his last match of the ATP Finals group stage.

Novak Djokovic’s qualification scenario: The Serb’s fate for ATP Finals semis not in his hands as the group splits up wide open

Novak Djokovic (Source: novakdjokovic.com)

Novak Djokovic suffered a tough loss against Jannik Sinner in his second match of the 2023 ATP Finals. It was the Serb’s first defeat since his loss to Carlos Alcaraz in the final at Wimbledon and it has opened up a ton of possibilities for the qualification scenario in the Green Group. None of the spots are confirmed yet and apart from Hubert Hurkacz, all three players can qualify for the semifinals. 

The two matches left to be played in the green group are Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz and Holger Rune vs Jannik Sinner. Currently, both Rune and Djokovic have one loss and one win each. If Holger Rune loses his match against Jannik Sinner, then the path to the semifinals becomes pretty clear as Sinner and Djokovic will qualify easily (Djokovic is currently ahead on game% won). However, things get tricky if Holger Rune defeats Jannik Sinner in the last match. 

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If Novak Djokovic loses to Hubert Hurkacz, he will be eliminated from the tournament irrespective of the result of the match between Rune and Sinner. If he wins, however, the results of both matches will determine the two semifinalists from the green group. Coming to the first possibility, if Rune beats Sinner 2-0 and Djokovic beats Hurkacz 2-1, Holger Rune and Jannik Sinner will finish 1st and second in the points table respectively. 

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However, if Holger Rune beats Sinner 2-0 and Novak Djokovic beats Hurkacz 2-0, Holger Rune and Novak Djokovic will head into the semifinals. If Rune beats Sinner 2-1 and Djokovic beats Hurkacz 2-0, all three will be tied in sets and the game% will determine who will qualify for the semis. Thus, to be on the safer side, Novak Djokovic must win his match against Hubert Hurkacz in straight sets. 

Novak Djokovic says everyone wants his head 

The Serb was questioned after his loss against Jannik Sinner whether all the top players in the world, especially the young ones like Holger Rune, Carlos Alcaraz, and Jannik Sinner are extra motivated whenever they play against him. Novak replied it was true and pretty obvious because the young players want to get to the level that he has already reached. 

Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic (Source: @TennisTV/X)
I think it's normal, they want to get to where I got to. This happens everywhere I play. Everyone wants my head. Jannik got it today. But I’m happy with how I fought.
Novak Djokovic

After defeating Novak for the first time in his career, Jannik Sinner has attributed this as the best moment of his career so far which goes on to prove the Serb’s point. Meanwhile, Djokovic also assured that he’ll stay the World No.1 at the end of the calendar year for the 8th time a couple of days ago after he defeated Holger Rune.

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